Is this the end of Tony?

My prediction for the Sopranos denouement—that A.J.’s crisis will spell Tony’s demise (see4/24/07 entry) is looking better. In this week’s episode, A.J. becomes involved with some college bookies. On a lark (their’s, not his) they kidnap one of their bettors, beat him and pour acid on his foot. A.J. isn’t just along for the ride; he’s driving the car. The victim has been introduced the “Anthony Soprano Jr.” as if he is a member of the gang. Thus, the feds can nail A.J. on serious federal crimes, including perhaps a RICO count. The sand and beautiful part is that Tony put A.J. up to it, insisting he go to a stripper party—and thinking even after the fact that A.J. doing so was a good idea. After all, it got the depressed and newly medicated scion of the family out of the house. Now when the feds grab A.J. the pressure will be on for him to give up Tony, and Tony can only tell him to do just that. Thus Tony will fall by his own hand. A perfect demise: surprising and inevitable at once.

Prediction

Kerry: 49.6% -- 276 electoral votes
Bush: 49.2% -- 262 electoral votes

The Poll Nobody Knows

With an assist from The Mystery Pollster [http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/] (an old friend, as it happens) I now realize I overstated the number of undecideds (see below). But the number of undecided, uncommitted ("swing") voters is still higher than the polls imply. (See my 10/31/04 Top of the News, Election 2004--Deciding What's Undecided .) For that reason and because of of the "incumbent rule" that says the undecideds break for the challenger[http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/the_incumbent_r.html], I still believe that my long-ago, first-in-the-nation prediction of a Kerry victory [http://forbes.com/2003/12/15/sp04_economy_2.html]will will turn out to be correct.

Amazing news from the Pew Research survey: The number of “uncommitted” voters is close to 50% of the electorate and the share of “undecided” is 16%-- not the 3% of 5% that most pollsters claim. Pew says that 27% are “certain” to vote for Kerry; 22% certain to vote for Bush. Another 16% “favor” Bush; 13% “favor” Kerry. The late movers to date are heading towards Kerry.

I believe the difference between these results and the ones we usually see is that most pollsters put leaners in one camp or the other and they insist the respondents express a view.

For details see: http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=231

Call Him Reckless

In fact, George W. Bush is the most reckless president in our history. He is almost unbelievably irresponsible in so many ways. Here are just a few:

The President turned the largest surplus in our history into our largest deficit—all without adding a single job.

He rushed to war based on phony claims and some outright lies—all without any idea about what to do next.

He spreads fear by saying that he and only he is committed to America's security—all without making us any safer.

He savages the environment—all without making us any more energy independent.

And whenever his plans go wrong, as they so often do, he makes excuses, blames others, refuses responsibility. These are the acts and the attitudes of a reckless man, and a president who cannot be trusted.

Are You Safer Now?

President Bush says he is making us safer. But in his watch nearly 5,000 Americans gave been killed by war or terrorists. That's more than under President Clinton, or Bush the First, or Reagan, or Carter, or Ford-- or under all those presidents combined. And there is no end in sight to the killing in Iraq. So how is that safer?

Not Compassionate-- and Not Conservative Either

The president likes to toss labels around. He calls himself a compassionate conservative. But is it 'conservative' to explode the federal deficit? Is it conservative to rush to war? Is it conservative to threaten even more war and to run a backdoor draft. I don't call that compassionate and it doesn't sound very conservative either. I call that reckess.

Let The Sunset On the Bush Administration

In the last debate, President Bush talked about being on the sunrise side of the mountain, not the sunset side. That way, he said, you see the day that is coming, not to see the day that is gone. Well, I'm all for watching the sunrise. But what the president was really saying is that we should forget his record because he can't defend it. What is saying is: ignore my past; just listen to my promises.

Thinking About Waffling

There were no weapons so the president can no longer defend his reason for going to war. But amazingly he says that anyone who doesn't agree with him at all times is guilty of wavering, waffling, and whatever else. He was wrong, though he won't admit it. When I learn new facts—when I learn the truth—I change my view. The president calls it waffling. I call it thinking.

Bush Gets an 'F'

Last week the Wall Street Journal polled its readers and asked, "How would you grade President Bush's record on creating jobs?" Four percent gave the President an 'A'. Not bad. But 72% gave him an 'F'. These are Wall Street Journal readers, mind you, a pretty conservative crowd. And, Mr. President, even they say you are failing….

Global Gag

America has always stood for freedom and it must. But the Bush-Cheney administration so often fails to uphold that basic tradition, that fundamental trust. On his first day in office, Mr. Bush signed something they call the global gag rule; he did it to appease Jerry Falwell and the religious right. That rule means that any family planning clinic anywhere in world-- if they even mention abortion they can get no U.S. assistance for anything. Whatever your position on abortion -- John Edwards and I believe in the woman's right to choose-- that's not freedom. That's not freedom. On my first day in office, I will end that rule.

Bush-Cheney Bait and Switch

You don't go to war unless you are certain you have darned good reason. You don't shoot first and then think. First George Bush and Dick Cheney said Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. They told the Congress that; they told the world that; they told the American people that. Now they admit he had no such weapons. But--they say-- the war was justified because he wanted the weapons, intended to get thiem, was thinking aout them. Well, no one ever robbed a liquor store with a gun he was just thinking about. But more to the point, I never would have thought we'd see the Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney playing bait and switch over matters of war and piece. But here you have it. Here you have just that.

Kick Bush Back To Texas

Recently Mr. Bush has started saying that I want Saddam Hussein back in power. He tries to pretend that he and only he-- and Dick Cheney-- are for America, and that anyone not for him is against America. This is a tactic of bullies and tyrants. It's wrong, it's a lie and I hope he stops. But since he's desperate and dying to divert attention from his record, I doubt he will. It's still a free country-- though not as free as before Bush-Cheney gained power. So what I really hope-- and expect-- is that the American people make him stop by evicting him from the White House and sending him back to Texas.